Election 2013 Watch: ‘Tyranny by Numbers’ Presentation by Political Scientist Ngunyi Mutahi and its Aftermath

Ngunyi Mutahi was the talk of town this week because of his presentation which asserts that Jubilee coalition will win March 4 elections based on support from their ethnic folks.

Mutahi Ngunyi is a popular political commentator who can be equated to either Karl Rove or Dick Morris of the US. Mutahi espoused his hypothesis in which he quips the elections we're won in December 18, 2012. That is the date IEBC finished the voter registration exercise. This hypothesis gives Jubilee alliance a win in the first round based on the strength of Kikuyu and Kalenjin votes. 

Voter registration as at December 18, 2012. [Source: IEBC]

This analysis was the basis of this interview between Sakaja Johnson the head of TNA party [Uhuru Kenyatta’s party in Jubilee coalition] and Dr. Adams Oloo [Political Scientist and head dept. of Political Science at University of Nairobi – my former teacher I must add]

This analysis has resulted to a number of other ‘ analysis’ by political pundits. According to Makodingo the CORD Coalition a win in round one. 

Makodingo Analysis 

Makodingo is a political consultant affiliated to the CORD coalition. He came up with this set of numbers [below] that give the PM a win in the first round with a 50.5% of the votes cast IF the turnout is above 70%.

How Raila and Kalonzo Could Win in The First Round from MAKODINGO

This analysis can be considered to be a rebutt to Mutahi Ngunyi’s ‘tyranny by numbers’ hypothesis by the PM aides. 

Based on

Projected voter turn out per region and per from MAKODINGO

Constitution Second Anniversary: What the Media Reported

Below are snippets of what the fourth estate featured to commemorate our constitution's second anniversary;
K24

GBS

Daily Nation

Daily Nation gave prominence to Kofi Annan Statement that he released on the eve this anniversary. His statement noted;

The adoption of the Constitution on 27 August, 2010 was a watershed moment in the history of the country; the product of a decades-long struggle to reform the way in which Kenya is governed. It also marked the most significant milestone in the implementation of the reform agenda of the Coalition Government, which both partners had committed themselves to when the National Accord was signed in early 2008.

Kofi Annan's statement also goes ahead to note the missing gaps that we should have implemented at this junction.

There are still some gaps in key areas of constitutional implementation. These include the areas of police reform, in particular the creation of the National Police Service Commission and the appointment of the Inspector-General of Police; and the conclusion of the process to appoint commissioners to the Ethics and Anti-Corruption Commission. It is also critical that the issue of gender representation within the National Assembly receives the attention it deserves and is authoritatively concluded before it affects the electoral preparedness timetable. We are confident, however, that these and other outstanding tasks will be completed.

However, he does NOT point out some of the outstanding issues which they pointed out rightly after 2007/8 disputed polls 'famously referred to as Agenda 4' which in my opinion are the reason we still not out of the woods yet. Some of this are; 

1. Unemployment, particularly among the youth
2. Land reform
3. Poverty,inequality and regional imbalances

As we go ahead we hope the other items below will be addressed before the March 2013 poll

1. Institutional reform: The Police
2. Institutional reform: The Civil Service
3. Institutional reform: The Parliament
4. Consolidating National Cohesion and Unity
5. Transparency, accountability, impunity

My eye catching event of this day is when the Prime Minister Raila Odinga led the second liberation brigade to Nyayo House [former torture chambers under Moi’s government].

The PM with other 2nd Liberation Fighters. Source PMPS

However, the sad thing to note is that on this day we had a daylight assassination in Mombasa which has left the coast province reeling with violence

Recommended

Watch Mutahi Ngunyi on the bench as he gives his views;

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4