Election 2013 Watch: ‘Tyranny by Numbers’ Presentation by Political Scientist Ngunyi Mutahi and its Aftermath

Ngunyi Mutahi was the talk of town this week because of his presentation which asserts that Jubilee coalition will win March 4 elections based on support from their ethnic folks.

Mutahi Ngunyi is a popular political commentator who can be equated to either Karl Rove or Dick Morris of the US. Mutahi espoused his hypothesis in which he quips the elections we're won in December 18, 2012. That is the date IEBC finished the voter registration exercise. This hypothesis gives Jubilee alliance a win in the first round based on the strength of Kikuyu and Kalenjin votes. 

Voter registration as at December 18, 2012. [Source: IEBC]

This analysis was the basis of this interview between Sakaja Johnson the head of TNA party [Uhuru Kenyatta’s party in Jubilee coalition] and Dr. Adams Oloo [Political Scientist and head dept. of Political Science at University of Nairobi – my former teacher I must add]

This analysis has resulted to a number of other ‘ analysis’ by political pundits. According to Makodingo the CORD Coalition a win in round one. 

Makodingo Analysis 

Makodingo is a political consultant affiliated to the CORD coalition. He came up with this set of numbers [below] that give the PM a win in the first round with a 50.5% of the votes cast IF the turnout is above 70%.

How Raila and Kalonzo Could Win in The First Round from MAKODINGO

This analysis can be considered to be a rebutt to Mutahi Ngunyi’s ‘tyranny by numbers’ hypothesis by the PM aides. 

Based on

Projected voter turn out per region and per from MAKODINGO